Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.155912 0.184743 0.218627 0.261709 0.315487 0.381005 4.677972e-01
2025-08-17 0.113829 0.146393 0.188744 0.248891 0.333817 0.452118 6.342854e-01
2025-08-24 0.091352 0.126126 0.175583 0.253301 0.376686 0.573035 9.270013e-01
2025-08-31 0.074629 0.109679 0.163685 0.256881 0.422468 0.723591 1.364988e+00
2025-09-07 0.062452 0.097135 0.154666 0.263184 0.478604 0.927966 2.075935e+00
2025-09-14 0.052909 0.086609 0.146415 0.269091 0.540439 1.191483 3.217502e+00
2025-09-21 0.044118 0.075402 0.134223 0.264099 0.580997 1.449098 4.746942e+00
2025-09-28 0.034460 0.060623 0.111778 0.230630 0.541566 1.480685 5.649232e+00
2025-10-05 0.030305 0.055393 0.107080 0.235801 0.607077 1.899425 9.201079e+00
2025-10-12 0.027400 0.052022 0.105486 0.248489 0.705973 2.570810 1.668617e+01
2025-10-19 0.024627 0.048353 0.102350 0.256520 0.800379 3.393059 3.040658e+01
2025-10-26 0.022278 0.045128 0.099476 0.264682 0.906638 4.508164 5.884516e+01
2025-11-02 0.019560 0.040685 0.092869 0.260416 0.970625 5.617880 1.095236e+02
2025-11-09 0.016957 0.036031 0.084615 0.247809 0.992375 6.575284 1.912548e+02
2025-11-16 0.015371 0.033526 0.081557 0.252309 1.108922 8.834850 4.813701e+02
2025-11-23 0.013974 0.031226 0.078517 0.255967 1.232999 11.909550 1.430403e+03
2025-11-30 0.012833 0.029367 0.076312 0.262323 1.390499 16.633395 6.099875e+03
2025-12-07 0.011822 0.027664 0.074157 0.268273 1.563828 23.471413 4.485628e+04
2025-12-14 0.010707 0.025482 0.069958 0.263353 1.656492 30.160289 5.113490e+05
2025-12-21 0.009179 0.021931 0.060543 0.230034 1.473197 28.123200 1.010007e+06
2025-12-28 0.008565 0.020853 0.059142 0.235221 1.648754 40.317807 1.959512e+11
2026-01-04 0.008135 0.020230 0.059146 0.247898 1.933369 64.909631 NaN
2026-01-11 0.007668 0.019418 0.058296 0.255930 2.200282 101.293473 NaN